Karnataka Election Disaster-
Each and every other decision happening nowadays is by all accounts a decision on 2019 Lok Sabha Polls. Each election— from panchayats to state Assemblies — has been given the status of a national choice on Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In our 70-year political history, there has most likely never been such a great amount of fervour over polls as in the previous four years. The party that wins Karnataka will shape the following government in Delhi, the party that loses Rajasthan will be voted out of the Administration in Delhi — such overall articulations from political savants on TV and web-based social networking, without a reasonable causal connection, appears to be unrealistic no doubt.
This emphasis on these state election being pivotal indicators sounds impressive yet truly does not hold much water. No voter across the nation stands in line to cast his vote considering: Oh good lord, I should vote in favour of this party since it won an election a year prior in one of the states. By one week from now, it will be history and of no pertinence to anybody, however, the editorial brigade. The winners will crow, the failures will lick their injuries and that is it.
EXPECTATIONS VS. REALITY
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) expectation of Karnataka being added in the rundown of 19 states where it is in control is dashed despite the fact that it verged on satisfying it. Be that as it may, the eight seats which the BJP expected to cross the end goal in the legislature eluded the party. Looking back, it may have been better for the BJP in the event that it had surrendered overcome when it saw that it had missed the mark regarding the objective of 112 in the 224- member House. Rather, by selecting a floor test, it incited all the avoidable debates about horse trading which have frequented the Indian political scene as far back as the ‘Aya ram- Gaya ram’ days of defections in the late 1960s.
The belief that those 15 days was too long a period was affirmed by the Supreme Court’s drastic reduction of the time required by Yeddyurappa to two days. When the lawmakers must be carted around starting with one town then onto the next and stayed in extravagance resorts to prevent any of them from being tricked away by the forces-that-be, it is important to give an inspiring Chief Minister as little leeway as possible. At last, the Supreme Court’s mandate obviously proved crucial, for the BJP chose not to hold up to have its legislative strength tested on the floor of the House.
What is worrying for the BJP is that the setback in Karnataka has shown that, for once, the extra effort put in by Narendra Modi by raising the number of his rallies from 15 to 21 did not pay any dividends. Since Modi remains not only the party’s star campaigner but also the only one who can make the difference between victory and defeat, any hint that he can no longer easily enable the party to cross the winning line cannot but be of concern when the BJP faces three more crucial Assembly elections in a few months’ time in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Clearly, the burden which he already carries as the spearhead of the BJP’s campaign has become heavier after the outcome in Karnataka.
It goes without saying that the new ruling group in Karnataka will provide the first test of the possibility of anti-BJP pact holding two not-so-friendly parties together. The test is more crucial because the Janata Dal-Secular is expected to have a tacit understanding with the BJP in constituencies such as Chamundeshwari, where the saffron party have put up a weak candidate because the Janata Dal-Secular is expected to have the upper hand in a direct fight with the Congress.
So, while we are stirring a storm in our teacups and looking to dabble in some crystal-ball gazing for the Lok Sabha elections, the Karnataka elections was an election for 224 lawmakers in the state who are elected on their performance at a local level, not on how they shore up their parties for 2019. There will always be a couple of thousand kilometres to traverse between Delhi and Davangere.
So, as 15 May, marked Modi government’s entry into its final year, he could well sound the bugle for the Lok Sabha polls.
Brace for the Shakespearean fifth act to unfurl soon and prompt the climax of 2019.
