The Role of Mediation in International Climate Change Agreements
ABSTRACT:
Climate Change has become a long pressing problem in the global spectrum since the early 90’s. Since it’s very discovery there have been various disagreements and a lot of debate over firstly, the existence and consequently the degree of attention, budget allocations, sanctions on commerce etc. which have greatly impacted the Indian economy and environment and the policies in relation to it. Even so, there have been various questions raised over this, A very good example of this is the recent disagreement between the President of the USA, and the other majority of the world that based on the scientific evidence over the decades, had logically concluded that climate change existed, contrary to the belief of the President who denies it’s existence.
In the Indian Context, there have been various disagreements and the role of mediation has and will be crucial in engaging the Nations and States involved in the agreements to ensure mutual corporations, coordination’s and to conform to ensure that the countries move from conflict to peacemaking, to meet the basic purpose of the agreements, that is, “agreement”. The purpose of this article is to understand the need for mediation in Climate Change agreements, the contribution of mediation to such agreements and also the protection of the Indian interests in the world, in moving from conflict to resolution.
INTRODUCTION:
There can be no debate over whether or not Climate Change is a reality of today. Despite denial by one of the World’s superpowers, Climate Change is the harsh reality of today, as aptly describe by the National geographic scientists: ‘It should be troubling enough that temperatures are rising, glaciers are melting, and Arctic sea ice is disappearing so fast that walruses often lounge about on land’[1] Other than the obvious problems of increasing global temperatures, rapidly growing population, swiftly spreading germs and diseases, melting permafrost, increasing sea levels etc are all troubling concerns.[2]
But if its all in such unison, where do the problems arise? Even if most countries agree upon the need for immediate action and the existence of climate change on a global scale (which is far from the reality) there are basic, fundamental that even the propounders of climate change disagree upon. Briefly, there is also huge debate over whether clouds intensify climate change? whether or not the oceans would continue to absorb CO2? And how fast the ocean levels are actually rising?
These questions have not yet reached a consensus by the scientists themselves, leave alone the Nations or States involved in the climate change agreements. Moreover, significant differences arise between Annex and non- Annex countries upon the level of emission, the contribution to be made and the necessary changes in policy required. In such cases, to protect the individual interest of each of the countries involved need to be protected. From the very beginning of environmental law from the Stockholm conference, the focus has been on minimizing the economic sacrifice to be made by the developing or industrializing countries and even in, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC) which is an international environmental treaty negotiated at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992.
The objective of the treaty was to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”[3] In most of the countries that were involved they wanted to know how investing in preservation of bio-diversity would provide economic results, leading to much debate and discussion over the sanctions imposed.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that the global mean temperature may increase between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius by 2100. This unprecedented increase is expected to have severe impacts on the global hydrological system, eco-systems, sea level, crop production and related produces The impact would be particularly severe in the tropical areas, which mainly consist of developing countries, including India. The UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in 1992 at Rio de Janeiro to Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which laid the framework for the eventual stabilization of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, recognizing the common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and social and economic conditions. The Convention came into force in 1994.
Subsequently, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which came into the force in 2005, reasserted the importance of stabilizing greenhouse gases concentrations in the atmosphere and adhering to sustainable development principles. The Protocol laid out guidelines and rules regarding the extent to which a participating industrialized country should reduce its emissions of six green house gases – carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlofluoro-carbon, hydrofluorocarbons and perfluoro-carbons. The Kyoto Protocol does not require the developing countries to reduce their green house gas emissions.
However, the Kyoto reduction, by itself, is inadequate to achieve a stabilization of climate change by 2010. The global carbon cycle involves interaction among the atmosphere, oceans, soils and vegetation and fossil fuel deposits. The combustion of fossil fuels and other human activities are the primary reasons for increased concentrations of CO2 and other green house gases. Between 1910 and 1999, an estimated 6.3 G+C/year was released due to the combustion of fossil fuels, and another 1.6 G+C/year was released due to the burning of forest vegetation of the six aforementioned Green House Gases.[4]
INDIAN CONTEXT:
Until recently, India had repeatedly rejected calls to quantify its targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions on the grounds that this would jeopardize national poverty alleviation goals. “India cannot and will not take emission reduction targets because poverty eradication and social and economic development are first and over-riding priorities,” Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh said in June of 2009. Up until the G-20 summit, the government believed that the developed countries should take more responsibility for the climate change. Recently, there has been a lot more pressure on the Indian Government, with the expansion in trade, the economic development and industrialization.
Let us take a look at all the historical development of the impact of climate change in India:
Firstly, There has been a significant increase in carbon dioxide emissions (92.6 percent) during 1990 to 2005 in India. The per capita carbon dioxide emission has increased from 0.7 mt in 1990 to 1.1 mt in 2005. India’s share in global carbon dioxide emissions was reported to be 4.33 percent in 2005. Cumulative carbon dioxide emissions since1850 were reported to be 28.6 billion mt in India.[5]
The following table denotes the natural disasters that have taken place in India as a direct impact of climate change: [6]
Storms and cyclones are a potential shock for India, especially for coastal regions and a significant decadal variability in their occurrence has been noticed. Although studies suggest a decreasing trend in the frequency of Tropical Cyclones and Monsoon Depressions over the north Indian Ocean in recent years significant increasing trends (20 percent per hundred years) during November and May over the past decades, have been registered[7]. The country faced a maximum number of severe cyclones during the decades 1981- 90 and 1991-2000 and minimum in 1911-1920. The last decade of the past century had 24 severe cyclones while 29 lethal storms hit the country during 1971-80 (EM-DAT). During past 3 years alone (2011- 2013), India has faced 5 strong cyclones which affected the economy of Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu states badly. While these hazards show a notable variability, the damage and destruction from such systems do not seem to decrease.
All in all, India has suffered serious economic, social and political damage due to the impact of Climate Change, a short summary of major damages caused is represented below:[8]
The National Action Plan was launched by the Government to comply with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, in accordance with it, decisions were made to follow an 8 fold mission to contribute internationally while keeping in pace with the sustainable development. It has been briefly described below[9]:
- National Mission on Solar Energy: India being a tropical country has great potential for the use of Solar Energy in the longer term. As part of the programme, the R&D authority has been authorized to work on decentralizing the implementation of solar energy and to make the cost of implementation of producing solar panels and reflectors cheaper and more affordable in the near future.
- National Mission On Sustainable Habitat: This mission is centred on the making of living habitat more sustainable by better management of solid waste, implementation of the modal use of public transport and improvements in energy efficiency in buildings. This is intended to be done by making an Energy Conservation Building Code for the big commercial buildings that have been set up in the more urbanized parts of the country, to ensure a standard implementation of the practice. Recycling of solid waste, reuse of waste water and better, more efficient water recycling and conservation technology is to be implemented by the R&D authority.
- National Mission on Energy Efficiency: The government plans to implement a system of certification for the industries that promote energy efficiency while also maintaining a system for the minimum standards that are to be met. To ensure that more energy efficient appliances are introduced in the market through cost-cutting and making such appliances more affordable. Lastly, to make changes in the fiscal mechanism to promote energy efficiency.
- National Water Mission: Through this mission the government proposes to better conserve water, reduce wastage and increase the efficiency of the recycling plants. It further aims to reduce the disparity in water distribution. It seeks to develop a new regulatory system along with appropriate entitlements and pricing. It also seeks to improve the existing irrigation system to make use of more ground water.
- National Mission On Himalayan Ecosystem: This mission seeks to understand the level to which the Himalayan Glaciers are under threat and to what extent they can be saved. It seeks to improve the agricultural system for the 51 million that practice irrigation in the Himalayan Region.
- National Mission for Green India: A national mission to enhance the ecosystems of India, including the implementation of a carbon sink, is intended to be implemented. An afforestation campaign for 6 million trees has already been announced. A further Rs. 6000 crores have been sanctioned through CAMPA to further work under this programme.
- National Mission On Strategic Knowledge: This can be done by monitoring climate change and making changes in the policy as per the requirements of the time. A climate change research fund is to be sanctioned in order to further research in the sector and to help the private sector in realizing the effects of industrialization on climate change.
- National Mission On Sustainable Agriculture: This change seeks to make the agricultural sector more resilient to the effects of climate change. Agriculture is to be adapted to the changes such as flooding, variation in moisture, extreme weather and long dry spells. The focus would be on improving productivity despite these conditions and how situations can be manipulated to the farmers’ advantage.
The implementation of such programmes, that have been implemented in the past and for those that are currently being implemented, it implies a cost burden on the Indian Economy. Prediction of the Climate Changes, Adaptation to them, Implementation of these plans and the formation of strategies based on scientific evidence all add a cost burden to the economy.
CONCLUSION:
Although natural disasters are beyond the control of human being, however, their impacts can be reduced by setting up of advanced warning systems. Technology may provide a “silver bullet” to cope with the consequences of climate change and increasing disasters in the country. The catastrophic weight of these events on society can also be reduced through effective disaster management, and in formulating the management and mitigation policies, a composite disaster lethality index will be worth practising. Present day natural disaster scales- the Volcanic Explosivity Index, the Richter Scale, the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and the Fujita Tornado Scale, which are used to warn communities, measure the natural disaster in terms of intensity
Despite the efforts already being taken, there is a need for further efforts and promotion of the development of research with regard to climate change. There is a need to prepare a comprehensive, flexible and user-friendly framework for planning and policy analysis under climate variability and uncertainty scenario.
BIBLIOGRAPHY & REFERENCES:
For online references:
- https://www.cfr.org
- https://siteresources.worldbank.org
- http://www.worldbank.org/en/news
- http://unfccc.int/2860.php
- https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com
- http://www.moef.nic.in/ccd-napcc
ARTICLES:
1.National Geographic- Save The Earth Project, Published 8//11/16
[1] https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/12/151204-climate-paris-disease-antarctic-arctic-ice-meltacidification-fish-co2/ as retrieved on 30/01/18
[2] Reference to discussions in the UN on http://www.ccacoalition.org/en/content/why-we-need-act-now. As retrieved on 30/01/18.
ARTICLE REFFERED TO:
Evaluation of UNFCC Staistics
[3] https://cop23.unfccc.int as retrieved on 01/02/18
[4] Climate Change and Its Impact on Natural
Disasters in India-Dr A K Singh
http://www.rcueslucknow.org/Publication/TrainingModules/Dr.A.K.Singh/Paper%20for%20RCUES%2026-04-2010.pdf As retrieved on 2/02/18
[5] World Development Report, 2010. https://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDR2010/Resources/5287678-1226014527953/WDR10-Full-Text.pdf as retrieved on 3/02/18
[6]World Bank data on impact of climate change in India : http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/06/19/india-climate-change-impacts
[7]Stastics realted to Climate Change, India-2015 http://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/publication_reports/climateChangeStat2015.pdf As retrived on 3/02/18
[8] Statistical Impact of Climate Change & Loss to Property- World Bank. https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/an-assessment-of-climate-change-natural-disaster-linkage-in-indian-context-2329-6755.1000167.php?aid=28149#28
GOVT DATA:
[9] http://www.moef.nic.in/downloads/home/Pg01-52.pdf As retrived on 02/02/18
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